India-Pakistan Conflict: The Battle, The Ceasefire, and the Nuclear Threat

India-Pakistan Conflict: Latest Updates & Analysis

Introduction  

The India-Pakistan conflict has escalated into a full-scale military confrontation, with precision airstrikes, missile attacks, and diplomatic maneuvering shaping the battlefield. The crisis began with the Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, which claimed 26 civilian lives, prompting India to launch Operation Sindoor—a series of targeted strikes on terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.  

As India showcased satellite images of destroyed militant bases, Pakistan retaliated with Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos, attempting to strike Indian military installations. However, reports suggest Pakistan’s missile capabilities failed to counter India’s firepower. In parallel, Pakistan launched a PR campaign, portraying itself as a victim to gain Western sympathy.  

After days of intense military exchanges, a ceasefire agreement was reached on May 10, mediated by the United States, but sporadic violations continue.  

Timeline of Events  

April 22, 2025 – Pahalgam Terrorist Attack  

• Attack Details: Five heavily armed militants stormed Baisaran Valley, opening fire on tourists. 26 civilians were killed, including newlywed couples and a local Muslim pony ride operator who tried to resist the attackers.   
• Target Selection: The attackers reportedly asked victims to declare their religion before executing them—Hindu and Christian tourists were singled out.  
• Claim of Responsibility: Initially, The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), claimed responsibility but later denied involvement, blaming Indian cyber-intelligence for fabricating the claim.  
• India’s Immediate Response: India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and closed the Attari-Wagah border.  
• Pakistan’s Denial: Pakistan rejected all accusations, calling India’s actions an "act of war."  

April 23-24, 2025 – Diplomatic Fallout  

    India’s Actions  

• Downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan.  
• Cancelled all visas for Pakistani nationals under SAARC.  
• Ordered Pakistani citizens to leave India within 48 hours.  

    Pakistan’s Retaliation  

• Closed its airspace to Indian flights.  
• Suspended all trade with India, including third-country transactions.  

    Misinformation Campaign Begins  

• Pakistani media falsely claimed India was preparing for a full-scale invasion, which was debunked by Indian officials.  
• Fake reports circulated stating India had bombed Pakistani cities, but satellite images showed no such strikes.  

May 6-7, 2025 – India’s Military Response (Operation Sindoor)  

    India’s Airstrikes  

• India’s airstrikes during Operation Sindoor were a coordinated precision attack targeting nine terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The operation involved three key missile systems—SCALP, HAMMER, and BrahMos—each playing a specific role in neutralizing militant infrastructure. 
• India also deployed Bengaluru-made SkyStriker suicide drones on May 7, 2025, in the forward areas of Jammu and Kashmir. These drones, developed by Alpha Design (ADTL) in collaboration with Israel’s Elbit Systems, were used for precision strikes on terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Each drone carried a 5 kg or 10 kg warhead and had a range of 100 km, allowing for silent, low-altitude operations

    Pakistan’s Response  

• Claimed civilian casualties, but independent reports suggested only terror infrastructure was hit.  
• Misinformation About Indian Jets Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif claimed that the Pakistani Air Force shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three Rafale jets, one MiG-29, and one Su-30. Indian officials did not confirm any aircraft losses, and no wreckage of Indian jets was found. CNN reported that images of a crashed aircraft circulated online, but it was unclear whether it belonged to India or Pakistan. Pakistan also claimed to have downed an Indian drone, but Indian defense sources dismissed the claim as propaganda.  

    Global Reactions  

• United Nations urged restraint.  
• US President Donald Trump offered to mediate, but India rejected third-party involvement.  
• Israel backed India’s right to self-defense.  

May 8-9, 2025 – Pakistan’s Counteraction (Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos)  

    Pakistan’s Missile Strikes  

• Targeted Indian military bases in Suratgarh, Sirsa, Bhuj, Naliya, Adampur, Halwara, Pathankot, and Srinagar.  
• On the night of May 8-9, Pakistan launched 300-400 Turkish drone intrusions from Leh to Sir Creek. These drones attempted to penetrate Indian airspace, targeting military installations and logistics hubs. A combat drone attempted to strike Bhatinda, but was neutralized by Indian air defenses before impact.
• Pakistan’s military framed the operation as measured retaliation, claiming it was aimed at degrading India’s offensive capabilities while avoiding civilian targets. However, independent analysts suggest that Pakistan’s missile strikes resulted in collateral damage, with reports of civilian casualties in border regions.

    India’s Retaliation  

• India’s S-400 and Akash missile systems intercepted multiple Pakistani drones and missiles targeting military bases in Pathankot, Srinagar, Jammu, and Punjab.
• India’s Spyder and Barak-8 systems were used to neutralize Pakistani loitering munitions near Adampur and Bhatinda.
• Neutralized Pakistan’s Fatah-II ballistic missiles before impact.  

    Misinformation Surge  

• Pakistan falsely claimed India’s electricity grid was 70% dysfunctional, but this was debunked by Indian officials.  
• Fake reports surfaced stating Indian missiles had hit Afghanistan, later proven false.  

May 10, 2025 – Ceasefire Agreement  

    Ceasefire Talks  

• India used BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles during Operation Sindoor on May 10, 2025, targeting key Pakistani military bases. The strikes hit Rafiqui, Murid, Nur Khan, Rahim Yar Khan, Sukkur, and Chunian, causing extensive damage to airfields and infrastructure. Additional strikes were reported at Skardu, Bholari, Jacobabad, and Sargodha airfields, crippling Pakistan’s air defense capabilities
• Ceasefire Talks Twelve hours after Indian strikes on eight Pakistani air bases, Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) called India’s DGMO at 3:35 PM IST, requesting a ceasefire from 5:00 PM IST. India agreed after internal discussions, and the formal ceasefire was declared at 5:00 PM IST, mediated by the United States

    Violations Begin  

• Violations Begin Despite the agreement, explosions were reported in Srinagar and Jammu within hours of the ceasefire. India accused Pakistan of breaking the agreement, while Pakistan denied any wrongdoing. Reports indicate that drone activity and artillery shelling continued along the Line of Control (LoC), raising concerns about the stability of the truce

    Trump’s Role  

• US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire, claiming credit for mediation.  
• India framed the agreement as a bilateral understanding, rejecting third-party involvement.  

May 11, 2025 –Indian Armed Forces held a joint press conference

    Indian Army Press Conference

• Lt Gen Rajiv Ghai, DGMO, stated that over 100 terrorists were eliminated in India's strikes on Pakistani terror camps.Nine confirmed terror camps were destroyed, including Bahawalpur and Muridke, which were key militant training sites.
• Pakistan lost 35 to 40 military personnel in the three-day combat, according to intelligence reports.
• India’s counter-drone operations successfully neutralized over 50 Pakistani drones attempting to infiltrate Indian airspace.
•  The Indian Air Force confirmed that S-400 batteries successfully intercepted long-range missile threats aimed at Jaisalmer and Bhuj.

    Indian Air Force Briefing

• Air Marshal AK Bharti presented video evidence of missile strikes on Arifwala air defense radar, Chaklala airfield, and Sargodha air base.
• He confirmed that Indian pilots returned safely, dismissing Pakistan’s claims of shooting down Indian jets.
• Pakistan’s air force suffered significant losses, but exact numbers were not disclosed.

    Indian Navy’s Role

• Vice Admiral AN Pramod revealed that the Indian Navy’s deployment in the Arabian Sea forced Pakistan’s naval forces to remain near their coast.
• Carrier battle groups, submarines, and aviation assets were deployed with full combat readiness.
• The Navy’s strategic positioning contributed to Pakistan’s urgent request for a ceasefire.

    Government’s Stance

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a high-level meeting with NSA Ajit Doval, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and the Chiefs of all three services.
• India warned Pakistan that any further violations of the ceasefire would result in severe retaliation.

May 12, 2025 – Diplomatic Talks & Future Outlook  

    DGMO-Level Talks  

• India warned Pakistan of severe retaliation if violations continued, citing reports of cross-border firing and drone activity despite the ceasefire. The Indian DGMO, Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai, emphasized that Pakistan would face serious consequences if hostilities resumed  

    India’s Stance  

• PM Modi declared that future talks with Pakistan would focus only on terrorism and the return of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).  
• India maintained that any further terrorist action from Pakistan would be treated as an act of war.  

Conclusion & Future Outlook  

Current Status  

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan remains fragile, with sporadic violations reported along the Line of Control. While both nations have agreed to halt military operations, tensions persist, and diplomatic relations remain strained. The Indian government has emphasized that any further terrorist activity originating from Pakistan will be met with decisive military action.  

Possible Outcomes  

• Continued ceasefire violations: Small-scale skirmishes and drone intrusions may continue despite the agreement.  
• Diplomatic negotiations: International pressure, particularly from the United States and the United Nations, may push both nations toward formal peace talks.  
• Economic consequences for Pakistan: Pakistan faces mounting financial pressure due to IMF bailout conditions, which could limit its ability to sustain prolonged military operations.  
• India’s strategic stance: India may continue strengthening its military presence along the border while maintaining a firm stance on counterterrorism operations.  

Calls for Peace  

• United Nations intervention: The UN has urged both nations to engage in diplomatic dialogue to prevent further escalation. However, concerns remain over Pakistan’s nuclear posture, which does not rule out first use in a conflict scenario.  
• US mediation: President Donald Trump played a key role in brokering the ceasefire, emphasizing the need for stability in South Asia. Reports suggest that the US intervened after intelligence indicated that India’s airstrikes may have hit a Pakistani military facility linked to its nuclear arsenal, raising fears of escalation.  
• Regional diplomacy: Countries like Qatar, UAE, and China have encouraged both India and Pakistan to resolve their differences through peaceful means. However, Pakistan’s military doctrine includes tactical nuclear weapons as a counter to India’s conventional superiority, increasing the risk of miscalculation.  

Potential for Nuclear War  

• Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine follows a first-use policy, meaning it could deploy nuclear weapons if it perceives an existential threat.  
• A 2019 study predicted that a high-casualty terror attack could trigger a military escalation leading to nuclear strikes.  
• Pakistan’s National Command Authority reportedly held discussions on nuclear readiness following India’s airstrikes.  
• If Pakistan were to launch nuclear weapons, India’s second-strike capability would ensure retaliation, leading to catastrophic consequences.  
• Pakistan possesses approximately 170 nuclear warheads, while India has around 172. India follows a No First Use policy, meaning it will only use nuclear weapons in retaliation to a nuclear attack. In contrast, Pakistan does not adhere to this policy and maintains a Full Spectrum Deterrence doctrine, which includes the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons to counter conventional military threat

 
Possible Nuclear Incident  

*****  Reports suggest that India’s airstrikes may have targeted a Pakistani military facility linked to its nuclear arsenal, prompting immediate US intervention. The strike on Nur Khan Airbase, which is near Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division headquarters, raised concerns about potential nuclear escalation. Following this, the US swiftly engaged both nations in backchannel negotiations, leading to the ceasefire agreement.  

  

Sources & References:

• Shiv Aroor, X Twitter .
• The Hindu .
• Indian Express .